Covid plots for family
April 13, 2020
Background
Notes and format last updated Apr 13, 2020
This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be the day prior.
The page starts by showing growth rates. I’ve moved down the raw numbers to later in the page because you can see raw numbers everywhere, and it’s sometimes hard to understand trends by looking only at them. Growth rates seem to me to be more important for understanding our progress.
- For the U.S. and each of our states, there are two growth rate charts: confirmed cases and deaths. Each chart then has two lines: one for total cases or deaths, and one for new cases or deaths. Each of these lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric. Note that I recently changed this so that each line is an avergae of daily growth rates, which better aligns the metrics, but can also make some of the trendlines a bit bumpier.
- For total cases (or deaths), the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases (or deaths) can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new cases (or deaths), the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to wtach for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing less new cases (or deaths) on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
- For the U.S. and each of our states, there are two growth rate charts: confirmed cases and deaths. Each chart then has two lines: one for total cases or deaths, and one for new cases or deaths. Each of these lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric. Note that I recently changed this so that each line is an avergae of daily growth rates, which better aligns the metrics, but can also make some of the trendlines a bit bumpier.
The page then shows state and county rankings normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents).
- For states, it shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths. In addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
- For counties, it shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths. The table also shows the top counties in the country for perspecive. And there is then a plot showing our counties’ percentiles over time.
There is then a long section with raw counts for the U.S., our states, and our counties for each of these categories:
- Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
- New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
- Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
- New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
- Rolling three-day death growth rate: This is the same as described for total and new cases above, but for total and new deaths.
Finally, the last section compares data from states that have and have not enacted state-wide stay-at-home orders, trying to see if there are any effects of the orders. It’s a work in progress, and there are more extensive notes in that section.
Growth rates
Confirmed cases (total and new)
U.S.
Our states
Deaths (total and new)
U.S.
Our states
By population rankings
States
Total confirmed cases
Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
## state casesPerMillion
## 1: New York 9,699
## 2: New Jersey 6,963
## 3: Louisiana 4,430
## 4: Massachusetts 3,696
## 5: Connecticut 3,375
## 6: District of Columbia 2,656
## 7: Rhode Island 2,515
## 8: Michigan 2,452
## 9: Pennsylvania 1,793
## 10: Delaware 1,668
## 11: Illinois 1,645
## 12: Washington 1,367
## 13: Maryland 1,360
## 14: Colorado 1,268
## 15: Indiana 1,177
## 16: Vermont 1,165
## 17: Georgia 1,139
## 18: Mississippi 934
## 19: Nevada 928
## 20: Florida 925
## 21: South Dakota 825
## 22: Idaho 797
## 23: Tennessee 753
## 24: Alabama 730
## 25: New Hampshire 724
## 26: Utah 718
## 27: Missouri 677
## 28: South Carolina 644
## 29: Virginia 617
## 30: New Mexico 593
## 31: California 590
## 32: Wisconsin 573
## 33: Ohio 564
## 34: Iowa 502
## 35: Oklahoma 497
## 36: Arizona 486
## 37: Texas 475
## 38: Maine 470
## 39: Wyoming 466
## 40: Kansas 459
## 41: Kentucky 439
## 42: North Carolina 430
## 43: Arkansas 424
## 44: Nebraska 423
## 45: North Dakota 404
## 46: Alaska 369
## 47: Montana 362
## 48: Oregon 362
## 49: Hawaii 351
## 50: West Virginia 343
## 51: Minnesota 287
## 52: Puerto Rico 280
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesPerMillion
New confirmed cases
Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state casesNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 492
## 2: New Jersey 406
## 3: Massachusetts 315
## 4: Rhode Island 295
## 5: Connecticut 210
## 6: District of Columbia 166
## 7: Louisiana 165
## 8: Delaware 142
## 9: Pennsylvania 119
## 10: Illinois 116
## 11: Maryland 112
## 12: South Dakota 106
## 13: Michigan 104
## 14: Indiana 78
## 15: Colorado 63
## 16: Mississippi 58
## 17: Vermont 52
## 18: Alabama 50
## 19: Virginia 48
## 20: Florida 47
## 21: Nevada 43
## 22: New Hampshire 40
## 23: New Mexico 40
## 24: Georgia 38
## 25: Nebraska 38
## 26: Washington 35
## 27: South Carolina 34
## 28: Iowa 33
## 29: Missouri 33
## 30: Tennessee 33
## 31: Utah 33
## 32: Kentucky 32
## 33: Ohio 31
## 34: North Carolina 27
## 35: Texas 27
## 36: California 26
## 37: Wisconsin 26
## 38: Kansas 25
## 39: Oklahoma 24
## 40: Arizona 23
## 41: Minnesota 22
## 42: Puerto Rico 22
## 43: Maine 18
## 44: North Dakota 17
## 45: Wyoming 17
## 46: Alaska 16
## 47: Oregon 16
## 48: West Virginia 16
## 49: Arkansas 14
## 50: Hawaii 13
## 51: Idaho 13
## 52: Montana 10
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesNewPerMillion
Total deaths
Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
## state deathsPerMillion
## 1: New York 482
## 2: New Jersey 264
## 3: Louisiana 180
## 4: Connecticut 155
## 5: Michigan 148
## 6: Massachusetts 109
## 7: District of Columbia 70
## 8: Washington 67
## 9: Rhode Island 59
## 10: Illinois 57
## 11: Colorado 50
## 12: Indiana 50
## 13: Vermont 43
## 14: Georgia 41
## 15: Pennsylvania 41
## 16: Maryland 39
## 17: Nevada 36
## 18: Delaware 35
## 19: Mississippi 32
## 20: Oklahoma 24
## 21: Wisconsin 24
## 22: Florida 21
## 23: Kentucky 21
## 24: Ohio 21
## 25: Kansas 19
## 26: Alabama 18
## 27: Missouri 18
## 28: California 17
## 29: Arizona 16
## 30: New Hampshire 16
## 31: Virginia 16
## 32: Idaho 15
## 33: South Carolina 15
## 34: Tennessee 15
## 35: Maine 14
## 36: Puerto Rico 13
## 37: Iowa 12
## 38: Minnesota 12
## 39: New Mexico 12
## 40: Oregon 12
## 41: North Dakota 10
## 42: Nebraska 9
## 43: Texas 9
## 44: Alaska 8
## 45: Arkansas 8
## 46: North Carolina 8
## 47: Hawaii 6
## 48: South Dakota 6
## 49: Montana 5
## 50: Utah 5
## 51: West Virginia 4
## 52: Wyoming 0
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsPerMillion
New deaths
Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state deathsNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 39
## 2: New Jersey 24
## 3: Connecticut 16
## 4: Michigan 13
## 5: Massachusetts 12
## 6: Louisiana 9
## 7: District of Columbia 8
## 8: Rhode Island 6
## 9: Illinois 5
## 10: Maryland 5
## 11: Delaware 4
## 12: Indiana 4
## 13: Pennsylvania 4
## 14: Colorado 3
## 15: Nevada 3
## 16: Mississippi 2
## 17: Vermont 2
## 18: Washington 2
## 19: Alabama 1
## 20: Arizona 1
## 21: California 1
## 22: Florida 1
## 23: Iowa 1
## 24: Kansas 1
## 25: Kentucky 1
## 26: Minnesota 1
## 27: Missouri 1
## 28: New Mexico 1
## 29: North Dakota 1
## 30: Ohio 1
## 31: Oklahoma 1
## 32: Puerto Rico 1
## 33: Virginia 1
## 34: Wisconsin 1
## 35: Alaska 0
## 36: Arkansas 0
## 37: Georgia 0
## 38: Hawaii 0
## 39: Idaho 0
## 40: Maine 0
## 41: Montana 0
## 42: Nebraska 0
## 43: New Hampshire 0
## 44: North Carolina 0
## 45: Oregon 0
## 46: South Carolina 0
## 47: South Dakota 0
## 48: Tennessee 0
## 49: Texas 0
## 50: Utah 0
## 51: West Virginia 0
## 52: Wyoming 0
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsNewPerMillion
Counties
Confirmed cases
Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 63,368 1 99
## 2: Rockland New York 23,699 2 99
## 3: Westchester New York 19,962 3 99
## 4: Blaine Idaho 19,721 4 99
## 5: Nassau New York 17,358 5 99
## 6: Davidson Tennessee 1,942 146 95
## 7: Richland South Carolina 1,188 318 89
## 8: Pierce Washington 1,035 386 87
## 9: York South Carolina 477 946 69
## 10: Orange California 402 1139 63Our county percentiles over time 
Deaths
Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 4,124 1 99
## 2: Terrell Georgia 1,172 2 99
## 3: Dougherty Georgia 819 3 99
## 4: Nassau New York 759 4 99
## 5: Randolph Georgia 738 5 99
## 6: Richland South Carolina 24 572 81
## 7: Pierce Washington 22 603 80
## 8: Davidson Tennessee 19 669 78
## 9: York South Carolina 11 829 73
## 10: Orange California 6 922 70Our county percentiles over time 
Raw counts
Total confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Total deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Stay-at-home comparisons
- The section is a work in progress – I’ll continue to update over the coming days.
- I’m trying to see what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger for the group with orders over time, as more states implement those orders).
- So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
- Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens a bit, but we’ll see. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
- The second plot is new and is attempting to track the progress normalized for how long each state has hade the order. It shows the average of the ratio for each state of the new cases for any given day to the number of new cases on the day the order was enacted. If the orders are working, over time this line should come back down…but it isn’t there yet.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger for the group with orders over time, as more states implement those orders).
